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The Oscars™
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Most likely: The Queen
Least likely: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Most likely: Peter O'Toole
Least likely: Ryan Gosling

Best Lead Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Most likely: Helen Mirren (but she could tie with Judi Dench)
Least likely: Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Most likely: Djimon Hounsou
Least likely: Mark Wahlberg

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Most likely: Jennifer Hudson
Least likely: Rinko Kikuchi

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

Most likely: Martin Scorsese
Least likely: Paul Greengrass

Best Foreign Language Film
After the Wedding, Denmark
Days of Glory (Indigenes), Algeria;
The Lives of Others, Germany
Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico;
Water, Canada

Notice who's not there? Apocalypto, USA. I think Mel Gibson must've pissed off the members of the Academy with his drunken rant last year.

Most likely: Pan's Labyrinth
Least likely: Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, and Todd Phillips, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Alfonso Cuaron, Timothy J. Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, and Hawk Ostby, Children of Men
William Monahan, The Departed
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal

Most likely: Children of Men
Least likey: Borat

Best Original Screenplay
Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, Letters From Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen

Most likely: Babel (Boy, that was a tough call.)
Least likely: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Finally, an Oscar-nominated movie I've actually seen.

Most likely: Cars
Least likey: Monster House

Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

I've seen PoTC: DMC and The Prestige, but not the others.

Most likely: Pan's Labyrinth
Least likely: The Good Shepherd

Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

Most likely: Pan's Labyrinth
Least likely: The Black Dahlia

Best Sound Mixing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Most likely: Dreamgirls
Least likely: Apocalypto

Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Clint Eastwood's two movies competing with each other.

Most likely: PotC: DMC
Least likely: Apocalypto

Best Original Score
Babel, Gustavo Santaolalla
The Good German, Thomas Newman
Notes on a Scandal, Philip Glass
Pan's Labyrinth, Javier Navarrete
The Queen, Alexandre Desplat

I haven't seen any of these movies, but I am familiar with Philip Glass -- he wrote an opera basted on Jean Cocteau's La Belle Et La Bete.

Most likely: Javier Navarrete
Least likely: Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song
"I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth, Melissa Etheridge
"Listen" from Dreamgirls, Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler, and Anne Preven
"Love You I Do" from Dreamgirls, Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett
"Our Town" from Cars, Randy Newman
"Patience" from Dreamgirls, Henry Krieger and Willie Reale

Most likely: one of the Dreamgirls songs
Least likely: "Our Town"

Best Costume
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

Most likely: Marie Antoinette
Least likely: The Devil Wears Prada

Best Documentary Feature
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

Most likely: An Inconvenient Truth
Least likely: My Country, My Country

Best Documentary (short subject)
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

Best Film Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

Most likely: United 93
Least likely: Children of Men

Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

Most likely: Pan's Labyrinth
Least likely: Apocalypto

Best Animated Short Film
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

Best Live Action Short Film
Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)
Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

Most likely: PotC: DMC
Least likely: Poseidon

The Razzies™
Worst Picture
Basic Instinct 2
Bloodrayne
Lady in the Water
Little Man
Wicker Man

Worst Actor
Tim Allen, The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause, The Shaggy Dog Story, and Zoom
Nicolas Cage, Wicker Man
Larry the Cable Guy (Dan Whitney), Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector
Rob Schneider, The Benchwarmers and Little Man
Marlon Wayans & Shawn Wayans, Little Man

Worst Actress
Hilary Duff & Haylie Duff, Material Girls
Lindsay Lohan, Just My Luck
Kristanna Loken, Bloodrayne
Jessica Simpson, Employee of the Month
Sharon Stone, Basic Instinct 2

Worst Supporting Actor
Danny DeVito, Deck the Halls
Ben Kingsley, Bloodrayne
M. Night Shyamalan, Lady in the Water
Martin Short, The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause
David Thewlis, Basic Instinct 2 and The Omen

Worst Supporting Actress
Kate Bosworth, Superman Returns
Kristin Chenoweth, Deck the Halls, The Pink Panther, and RV
Carmen Electra, Date Movie and Scary Movie 4
Jenny McCarthy, John Tucker Must Die
Michelle Rodriguez, Bloodrayne

Worst Screen Couple
Tim Allen & Martin Short, The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause
Nicolas Cage & His Bear Suit, Wicker Man
Hilary & Haylie Duff, Material Girls
Sharon Stone's Lop-Sided Breasts, Basic Instinct 2
Shawn Wayans & Either Kerry Washington or Marlon Wayans, Little Man

Worst Remake or Rip-Off
Little Man
Rip-off of the Bugs Bunny cartoon "Baby Buggy Bunny"
Pink Panther
Poseidon
The Shaggy Dog Story
Wicker Man

Worst Prequel or Sequel
Basic Instinct 2
Big Momma's House 2
Garfield: A Tail Of Two Kitties
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning

Worst Director
Uwe Boll, Bloodrayne
Michael Caton-Jones, Basic Instinct 2
Ron Howard, The Da Vinci Code
M. Night Shyamalan, Lady In The Water
Keenan Ivory Wayans, Little Man

Worst Screenplay
Basic Instinct 2: Screenplay by Leora Barish & Henry Bean, based on characters created by Joe Eszterhas
Bloodrayne: Screenplay by Guinevere Turner, based on the video game
Lady in the Water, written by M. Night Shyamalan
Little Man, written by Keenan Ivory Wayans, Marlon Wayans, & Shawn Wayans
Wicker Man: Screenplay adapted by Neil Labute from a screenplay by Anthony Schaffer

Worst Excuse for Family Entertainment
Deck the Halls
Garfield: A Tail Of Two Kitties
RV
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause
The Shaggy Dog